Saturday, 30 March 2013

Betting Strategy for Alternate PGA Events

A few times each year the PGA schedules an alternate event. Those are the events that are played at the same time as other events with limited fields – like the British Open or WGC events. The events obviously don't feature the most elite fields or the highest profile, and betting attention is diverted to the bigger event, but for bettors who put the effort into properly handicapping these alternate events they can provide serious opportunities for betting success – often much better than what is offered by the higher profile event taking place at the same time. When you are looking to handicap these alternate events here are five questions that are important to ask:

What solid players are in the field? – When there is a major event happening it will obviously draw the biggest names in the sport. The betting public is therefore likely to assume that all the good players are in the bigger event, and that the field in the alternate event will be weak – or at least undistinguished. That's not always the case, though. Sometimes there are some surprisingly strong players playing in the alternate event. Perhaps they couldn't qualify for the bigger event because they were injured, they struggled at times, or they had taken time off. Perhaps they have been playing well, but just not quite good enough to make the smaller field. Whatever the reason, it's possible – and even common – that the field is stronger in these alternate events than people think, and that there can be some golfers in the field who are actually really good. Good handicappers will be on the lookout for those players – especially the ones who are better than the public perceives them to be. If the public already doesn't give them enough respect in a normal tournament then they could really overlook them in these cases.

When in the season is it? – This is always a consideration in any tournament, but it is especially significant here. The deeper you get into the season the more desperate marginal players are going to be to maintain their playing status. That will motivate some players, and crush others. In the alternate events the field is more wide open, so more of these marginal players are going to be able to play, and they don't have to beat as many very strong players in their pursuit of a win or a high placing. When the fields are completely wide open – as they are in alternate events – then that can have a significant impact on the pressure these players face, and how they are able to respond to that pressure.

What's the course like? – The style of course is always important in the PGA. Does it favor big hitters, or more precise players? How tough are the greens? Is the rough forgiving or punishing? In these alternate events, though, the impact of the course and how well it suits the different players is even more important than normal. The reason is simple – the best players in the world are best able to adapt their games to suit several different types of courses, while lesser players are more dependent on their particular preferred style of course in order to shine. When the field is generally weaker then the players who are best suited to the course can have more of an advantage than they would in a full field event.

Will the public care at all? – The public is obviously going to be more interested in the high profile event than in the alternate event. The question you need to consider, then, is if there is any reason for the public to care about the alternate event at all. If they are still going to be interested in the alternate event then you need to be concerned about their biases and the impact that has on the odds. If the public won't be interested, though, then the only money that will be in play will be smart money. That will have a different but equally significant impact on the lines. One factor that can have a big impact on the popularity of the alternate event is where the main event is being played. If it is an international event then the time zone differences might make the tournament awkward to watch and less attractive to casual bettors than it otherwise would be.

Is it worth betting? – Ultimately this is the big question. It will be easier to get more analysis and insight into the higher profile event. The public will be more involved in the bigger event, so there is a better chance to find significant value in a player that has been overlooked. It will be much easier to watch the higher profile event on TV. It will also be much easier to shop around for the best odds because more books will offer odds and props on the big event than on the alternate event. Those all may be reasons to stick to betting on the high profile event. I certainly am not suggesting that you shouldn't bet on the alternate events – I love doing it. I'm just saying that you want to be sure you have a good reason for doing so, and that you have an edge that is worth pursuing.


http://www.madduxsports.com/library/golf/bet-strategy-pga-alternate-events.html

Tuesday, 26 March 2013

How 2nd Half NBA Betting Works And How To Win More Of Your Bets


NBA second half betting offers you a great tool to invest your money. There are several benefits to betting on the second half of an NBA game. Here, we will explain what the benefits are and how you might be able to come out with a chance to middle with your bet on the second half of an NBA game. Such a win-win situation is desirable for any bettor, as all you will be losing is the vig.

Much like in NFL games, oddsmakers have a limited time to set the new lines for the second half of a game. They might have to set several lines at the same times on nights with many games going on at the same time.

The oddsmakers also have to take the public perception into account and set their lines accordingly. If a heavy favorite is down at halftime, the public will expect the team to come back and turn the game around. Most of the action will be on the favorite, and oddsmakers have to account for that and shade their second half lines.

This is your chance to look for great value. Many professional bettors tend to bet against the public in any situation, as those bets usually offer better value. The halftime of an NBA game offers a great opportunity to do so.

If you have been following the game and you can tell that the favorite is having an off night, make use of that knowledge. Paying attention to all the details like fatigue, injuries, or just plain effort will give you more knowledge of the most likely outcome of the second half.

Maybe it is one of those nights where the stars don't go all out. They are just coasting along and taking the night off. Maybe one of the top players tweaked an ankle, and while he is still on the court, he can't pull off his signature move. Maybe the favorite is coming off a grueling road trip and the fatigue is showing in their play.

Use this knowledge to find value in second half bets and you will be able to gain additional money, hedge your full game bet, or even middle the book. Say, you picked the 5-point underdog going into the game and they are up seven at half time. The betting public will most likely go with the favorite to turn around and make the comeback.

The oddsmakers will shade the odds to account for that and the favorite will have to win the second half big to cover the spread. For our purposes, we will say the oddsmakers make them the 7-point favorite for the second half.

If you pick the favorite here, you can middle the book and you know that the worst thing that can happen is to push on your bets and lose the vig. If the favorite covers the second-half spread, you could win both bets, or just the second half bet. If the favorite doesn't cover the second-half spread, you lose your second half bet, but you win your full game bet.

Sometimes, sportsbooks react to the action they get at halftime and move the lines in the short amount of time the teams spend in the locker rooms. While many sportsbooks try to keep their lines close to where their competition has them, they will have to react to the action on their lines. This is your chance to make the most of your memberships at many online sports betting services. You will have a chance to browse their lines as they are changing and find the best value.

Make sure to watch the games closely and take advantage of any information you can gather throughout the first half of the game. If you pay attention to all the details, you can find a lot of value in NBA second half lines. There are many professional bettors out there that make the majority of their money on NBA second half bets.


http://www.madduxsports.com/library/nba/nba-second-half-betting.html

Thursday, 21 March 2013

Huge Bet On The Spin Of A Roulette Wheel

I have said many times before that betting is one of the best ways that exists to earn money. However I would not recommend that you do what this guy did, he bet his entire life savings on one spin of a roulette wheel. See what happened-





http://youtu.be/zGCdBsOIKYA

Wednesday, 13 March 2013

How To Win Betting Overs & Unders


When I first began my journey as a betting analyst, my main focus was on head to head and handicap betting. I was soley focussed on who would win and by how much.

Although I was well aware of Overs & Unders and the potential to bet on whether a match would end above or below the goal or points total, it took me a while to pay any real attention to the prospect of actually betting them.

And to be honest, it wasn't until a friend of mine made the claim that betting on points or goal totals was, in his words, a crapshoot.

Of course, this sort of claim only stirred my ambition and love for a challenge. "A crapshoot you say? Hmm, we'll see about that."

So I threw myself into analysing Over/Unders. And after a great deal of work and frustration and trial and error, I eventually developed an approach that has been quite successful for me in betting goal totals in football and point totals in the NFL and NBA.

And so in this article, I will share with you the key points of that approach in the hope that you too can improve your Over/Under betting.

Last week doesn't mean much

Yes, recent form matters. But it doesn't matter as much as most people think. At least when it comes to outwitting the odds.

Time and again, I will see people refer what a particular team has done in the last 3 weeks, 4 weeks or similar.

Yes, a club may have scored many goals or points in recent weeks or games. But does this really give you an accurate assessment of a team's true potential to score?

No, not really.

To obtain a true assessment of a team's potential to score you have to look deeper and you have to take a longer term view. Consider their scoring form over the last 20 matches, or even longer. It depends upon the sport, league and in general, the number and frequency of games played.

Yes, recent form should be taken into account. But a sure way to continually come out on the wrong side of an Over/Under bet, is to become easily seduced by a recent run of high or low scoring games.

And more to the point, it's recent form that the naive betting public is often seduced by, which means their are opportunities in the Over/Under markets for those of us who like to consider true potential rather than impulsive knee-jerk reactions to a mere few weeks of form.

Distinguish between home and away form

It seems obvious enough, but all too often I see people speak about a team's overall form and scoring potential, rather than their specific home and away form.

And it matters.

Look across Europe at any league, and you'll see that clubs have particular tendancies when it comes to scoring at home as opposed to away. Some clubs for whatever reason, engage in higher scoring matches at home than when travelling, while others are the opposite, competiting in tense and cagey affairs at home, while seeing the totals run up in away fixtures.

Just look a couple of simple examples. In the 2010/2011 Premier League season, Blackburn home matches went Under 2.5 goals on 13 of 19 occasions. But away from home, Blackburn matches were Under 2.5 goals in just 6 of 19 matches. On the other hand, Fulham home matches went Under 2.5 goals in 8 of 19 occasions, while their away matches went Under 13 times.

So the point should be clear, that when considering the Over or Under in a particular contest, consider where the game is being played and how either club has performed in that situation.

Track ocurrences not averages

This is once again, something I see all too often, people quoting scoring averages when assessing a particular match.

Averages might be ok when analysing a particularly large sample size with scorelines of limited variance. But the problem is that even over a sample size of for example 15 matches, one irregular result can distort the average.

Consider the following hypothetical example.

Let's say Chelsea have played 15 home matches with 45 total goals scored in those matches. That's an average of 3 goals scored per match. The Over/Under 2.5 goals is paying even money. Looks tempting considering Chelsea's home form in goal totals.

Now let's say that two of those 15 matches were particularly high scoring, for example, a 4-2 and a 5-1 result, seeing a total of 12 combined goals scored. These two irregular results have severely distored the average, which would be 2.53 in the other 13 matches.

What may have looked like an excellent opportunity to bet the Over 2.5 goals, suddently seems less enticing.

So while averages can be helpful in large sample sizes, in general, it's best to track occurences.

Look at how many times a team has gone over or under a particular goal total. In our Chelsea example, it could well be that while the average for the 15 home matches may be 3 goals per match, but that the actual number of times Chelsea home games have gone Over 2.5 goals could be less than 50% with a few high scoring matches giving an inaccurate and distorted impression. Perhaps Chelsea home games have only gone over 2.5 goals on 7 occasions.

Even if the average is 3 goals per match, would you feel good about betting the Over if the occurence rate was so low? Probably not.

Don't get exotic

Don't start getting too smart. Keep your Over/Under bets to the basic 2.5 goals or whatever the 'even money' line is for a particular match, typically between 2 and 3 goals depending upon the teams involved or the league.

The fact is, this is where the value is.

Sure, a bookmaker might be offering 5.00 for the Over 4.5 goals, but in general, bookmakers who offer these sorts of irregular goal total markets, tend to take a larger than average commission.

At the same time, value is wherever you can find it. And if you've crunched the numbers and have identified greater value in a higher or lower than typical goal total line, then by all means, take advantage of it.

But in general, I would encourage you to stick to the basics and concentrate on 'even money' Over/Under lines. You'll find your results to be far more consistent.

And in terms of analysis, it's far easier to find historical odds data resources for analysis on the web for these markets than it is the more exotic variety.

Identify scoring potential

By all means, analyse scorelines. But if you really want to improve your Over/Under betting, look at some deeper stats.

With any sort of analysis, we're attempting to guage a team's true potential in a given match or contest. And simple goals and scorelines aren't always the best way to do that.

So look deeper. Try to develop an analysis that incorporates statistical categories that can give an overall better indication of a teams base form and their true scoring potential.

Look at shots on goal for and against, shots on target for and against, goal for shot conversion rates. The problem with goals is that they can be a little inconsistent and sometimes show wild fluctuation.

More than that, the general public usually only considers scorelines and bookmakers more or less frame their odds on what the expectation is of the average football bettor. Having a deeper understanding of scoring potential can give you a great edge and will see you reap the rewards on the balance sheet.

Look at recent meetings

Considering recent meetings between the competitng teams can be helpful.

And can often surprise you. You might see that while two teams have been consistently low scoring and defensive clubs within their league. But when the two teams meet, for whatever reason, they play open and offensive games with high scores a regular outcome.

But don't look too far back. It's not really that relevant what two clubs did 10 seasons ago. So only consider meetings over the last 3 or so seasons.

And similarly, only pay attention to a sample size of a minumum 2 or preferably 3 matches. Sure, the last meeting between two clubs might have been an unexpected 5 goal result. But it's one match and in itself doesn't mean much.

On the other hand, if you see that the clubs have consistently gone over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 meetings in the last 2 seasons, then that is just the thing you want to make a note of in your analysis.

Consider the situation

Situational analysis is a great part of my overall assessment when betting Over/Unders.

Look at how the competiting clubs have performed in similar situations.

When a particular club is a heavy underdog away from home, have they typically been involved in higher or lower scoring matches? When playing inferior opponents, do they have the tendancy to run up the score or do they just go through the motions and do just enough to get the win?

And don't just look at the situational trends of the particular clubs competiting. Look deeper and seek out league wide trends. Are matches higher scoring at the beginning of the league season or towards the end?

These sorts of things are good to take into account in your overall analysis, and can often give you an edge and an angle that the general betting public just simply isn't aware of.


http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/how-to-win-betting-over-under-totals

Monday, 11 March 2013

Getting Started With Spread Betting


Spread betting is based on predictions made by bookmakers specifying the range of possible outcomes of an event. A 'spread' covers the most likely outcomes of an event and consists of two prices, a higher 'buy' price and a lower 'sell' price. If you believe the bookmakers 'buy' prediction will be exceeded you 'go long', conversely if you believe the 'sell' position is too generous and that the outcome will be lower you 'go short'. It is this ability to bet on decreases in an event as well as increases that makes spread betting so popular, especially within financial sectors.

Spread betting can broadly be divided into three categories; finance, sport and novelty. Financial spread betting allows you to benefit from movement within the stock market and other financial indices without having to purchasing stock and is often used to hedge against decreases in share or market value. Sports spread betting can be used to wager on a huge variety of different sporting eventualities from the number of goals scored in a game to the time of the first try in a game of rugby. Novelty spread betting encompasses almost everything else, ranging from seats won in an election to the number of calls taken on a reality TV show ? the options really are limitless.

Spread betting works on a margin basis, this means that when you place a bet you only have to hand over a deposit (usually in the region of 10%) instead of the full bet amount. Theoretically this means that you have more money to use in alternative investment opportunities or conversely allows you to stake a larger position on each point in the bet than you would have been able to otherwise (known as gearing). However you must have access to the total amount to cover costs should the bet go against you. Some brokers offer credit accounts for this reason.

As spread betting does not involve placing a fixed stake, but instead works on a pound per point basis (with you specifying the amount per point you would like to play with), the more right you are, the more you will win, consequently the potential profits are uncapped. However this also applies to loss and if the event goes against you, the more wrong you are the more you will owe the bookmaker.

As sports spread betting is a 'live' form of gambling, it is possible for you to open and close bets at anytime throughout an event. This means that if the outcome puts you in a loss making position, you are perfectly entitled to close the bet at any time or to change your preferences. Many brokers offer stop loss accounts which allow you to specify a limit at which the bet will be closed if the outcome moves against you. It is advisable to use this facility (although it may come at a charge) to help minimise potential losses.

As spread betting is classed as a form of gambling under British law due to the risk involved, you do not pay capital gains tax or stamp duty on your winnings. Additionally, bookmaker fees are likely to be minimal if any as theses are included in the spread margin. This means that if you do predict correctly and win a bet, the profits are all your own.

By researching the subject of your bet thoroughly, using facilities such as stop losses and only playing with money that you can afford to lose, spread betting can be an exciting and highly profitable form of gambling.

Thursday, 7 March 2013

Asian Handicaps Explained

Asian Handicap is a form of soccer betting which endeavours to level up each teams chances of winning a match by giving the weaker team a handicap start. It also removes the possibility of a draw, giving you only two outcomes to bet on.

There are two types of Asian Handicaps – those with a single handicap (e.g. Team A -0.5) and those with two handicaps (e.g. Team A -0.5/-1.0). If you are placing a bet on the two-handicap market, you are actually placing a bet on Team A -0.5 and Team A -1.0, each bet is for half your actual stake.

If you are placing a bet on a half-goal handicap (e.g. -0.5, -1.5, -2.5) there is always a winner in the market, as it’s not possible to score half a goal.

If you are placing a bet on a full-goal handicap (e.g. +1.0, +2.0, +3.0) and the result is level after the handicap has been applied, then all bets on the market will be refunded.


Examples:
  • This market gives Liverpool a 0.5 goal start against Manchester United.
  • If Liverpool win or draw the match, all bets placed on Liverpool +0.5 are winners because they have been given a 0.5 goal head start.
  • If Manchester United win the match then all bets placed on Manchester United -0.5 will be winners because they have to win by at least one goal.


 

  • This market gives Liverpool a 1.5 goal start against Manchester United.
  • If Manchester United win the match by 2 goals or more than all bets on Manchester United -1.5 are winners.
  • If Liverpool win, draw, or lose by one goal, then all bets on Liverpool +1.5 are winners.


Sometimes, the two teams are evenly matched and there is no need for a handicap. This is represented as follows. Note: There is no difference between +0.0 and -0.0.


 

  • If the match ends in a Draw, then all bets are refunded
  • If Liverpool win the match then all bets on Liverpool +0.0 are winners
  • If Manchester United win the match then all bets on Manchester United -0.0 are winners.

As mentioned earlier, some Asian Handicap markets contain two handicaps. These bets are sometimes referred to as Quarter-Goal or Quarter-Ball Handicaps. If you are placing a bet on the two-handicap market, you are actually placing a separate bet on each handicap in the market, with your stake divided evenly between both bets.

Examples:


 

  • If you select Manchester United you are placing two separate bets, one on Manchester United -0.0 and one on Manchester United -0.5, each for half of your stake.
  • If the game ends in a draw, you will be refunded your stake on the Manchester United -0.0 bet and lose your stake on the Manchester United -0.5 bet.
  • If Manchester United win the game, you will win both bets and if Manchester United lose the game, you will lose both of your bets
  • If you select Liverpool, you are also placing two separate bets, one on Liverpool +0.0 and one on Liverpool +0.5
  • If the game ends in a draw you will be refunded your stake on the Liverpool +0.0 bet and win your bet on Liverpool +0.5
  • If Liverpool win the game, you will win both bets and if Liverpool lose the game, you will lose both of your bets.


 

  • If you you select Manchester United you are placing two separate bets, one on Manchester United -1.0 and one on Manchester United -1.5, each for half of your stake.
  • If you placed €100 on Manchester United (-1.0/1.5) at odds of 2.0, the result of your bet is best explained using the table below.

Match Result
Lose by 1
Draw
Win by 1
Win by 2
Win by 3+
1st bet (Man Utd -1.0)
Lose €50
Lose €50
Bet refunded
Win €50
Win €50
2nd bet (Man Utd -1.5)
Lose €50
Lose €50
Lose €50
Win €50
Win €50
Total
Lose €100
Lose €100
Lose €50
Win €100
Win €100

  • If you select Liverpool you are placing two separate bets, one on Liverpool +1.0 and one on Liverpool +1.5, each for half of your stake
  • If you placed €100 on Liverpool -1.0/1.5 at odds of 2.0, the result of your bet is best explained using the table below.

Match Result
Lose by 2
Lose by 1
Draw
Win by 1
Win by 2
1st bet (Liverpool +1.0)
Lose €50
Bet refunded
Win €50
Win €50
Win €50
2nd bet (Liverpool +1.5)
Lose €50
Win €50
Win €50
Win €50
Win €50
Total
Lose €100
Win €50
Win €100
Win €100
Win €100



http://www.matchbook.com/help-and-tutorials/asian-handicap-betting/index.xml

Wednesday, 6 March 2013

The Ten Commandments of Football Betting

There is good money to be made from football betting if you stick to some simple basic rules.

Rule 1 - This is a golden rule, you must shop around for the best value. Open accounts with as many on line bookmakers as possible, they nearly all offer free bets to entice you to open accounts with them.

You should have no loyalty to any bookmaker and the sole reason you should be placing a bet with one is because you are getting the best price. People who just use the nearest high street shop haven't got a chance. Most Bookmakers have a profit margin of around 10% for football matches but because different bookmakers offer different prices it is still possible to swing the odds in your favour.

Rule 2 - Work out a staking plan. Once you have identified a value bet the next question is "how much should I bet?". The answer to this question is determined firstly, by how confident you are about the bet, and secondly, by how much value you think you are getting. For example, if you toss a coin in the air you have a 50% chance it will be heads and a 50% chance it will be tales. The correct price for each outcome should therefore be evens. But what if somebody offered you 3/1 that the coin would land on heads, you are obviously being offered huge value and if you repeated this bet ten times you would have to be incredibly unlucky not to be in profit at the end.

Whatever staking plan you have worked out, this would obviously be a maximum bet scenario, you could still lose but you have secured huge value and if you consistently bet when the odds are in your favour you theoretically will make money in the long run. Your staking plan should accommodate the fact that despite the huge value any individual bet may lose.

Rule 3 - Never, EVER, chase. We've all been there, you've had a terrible day and lost a lot of money, the live Spanish game is about to come on and it’s the last game of the day. "Time to get my money back", you say to yourself and you have a silly bet on Real Madrid at terrible odds. To make things even worse Madrid concede a last minute goal to level the game. They then go and miss a penalty deep in injury time, what a disaster, your days losses just got worse! To make money betting on football it is crucial that you have discipline. Just because a game is on TV doesn't mean you have to bet on it. If you didn't identify a value bet in the game at the start of the day then don't bet on it. We all have bad days and there will be plenty of good value opportunities to get your money back in the next set of fixtures.

You must be selective with your bets. If you do feel the need to bet on every game you watch then keep your stakes small unless you have identified value.

Rule 4 - Stick to singles or doubles. It is hard enough predicting the outcome of one match let alone five.

Bookmakers love to promote accumulator bets because they know the more selections you choose the less likely you are to win. No matter how many teams you pick there will always be one result that lets you down. Many people are attracted to these bets by the possibilities of winning a lot of money from relatively small stakes. You will find that if you increase your stakes a little and stick to singles and doubles your profits will increase long term.

Rule 5 - Pay close attention to team news. An injury to a key striker or a suspended captain can sometimes greatly swing the odds in your favour. As a general rule the higher the level of football the less affect team news will have as the top clubs have large squads full of quality players. The lower league teams however, operate with much smaller squads and can have their chances of winning badly affected by key players being injured or suspended. Be warned however, team news can be misleading. Some clubs actively give out false information in order to gain an advantage over their opponents so it is dangerous to base your bet on team news alone.

Rule 6 - Choose which markets you bet on carefully. The best markets to bet on are generally the match odds and some of the goals markets. Halftime/fulltime, correct score, first goal scorer and other similar markets have a higher profit margin built in by bookmakers and therefore generally offer poor value. This is not always the case though and occasionally you will find the odd juicy price in these markets.

For example, injuries may result in a midfield player starting up front making him much better value to be first goal scorer. Asian Handicaps are another market which you should make yourself familiar with. The bookmakers profit margin on these markets is a lot lower and so straight away you have more chance of finding value.

Rule 7 - Bend the rules in your favour. There are a number of things you can do to achieve this. Firstly make sure you pick up a coupon from your local shops at the start of the week. The prices printed on these coupons are compiled up to a week ahead of the game and are often cut online or on the phone. However the big two on the high street will hold the prices printed on these coupons so you can often find a bigger price on a shop coupon than you will be able to get online or even with the exchanges. If there is a big move for a certain game then they might impose restrictions of between £50-200 per customer, but you should still be able to get on. Likewise, when there is a move online and the match odds are cut you will sometimes find that a bookmaker has forgotten to cut the "draw no bet" or maybe the "halftime/fulltime" price.

It is also worth keeping an eye on long term markets when games are being played as you wouldn't believe how sloppy some bookmakers can be at suspending markets. This can be especially useful near the end of the season when it is clearer which teams might win the league or be relegated.

Rule 8 - Keep records of all your bets. It is important to do this so that you know exactly how much money you are making or losing. It will help you decide on your staking plan and make it clear that you should stop if you aren't making money in the long run.

Rule 9 - Stick to what you know and don't bet on leagues you haven't been following. You can only get an edge on bookmakers if you have better knowledge than they do on a certain league. If you don't usually bet on Italian football but Milan are playing Inter on Channel five, then don't bet on it. Accept that the bookmaker is likely to know much more about the two teams than you do and that, as a result, you are unlikely to beat him with bets on this league.

Depending on how much time you have free to study each league, you should be careful not to overstretch yourself. Pick one or two leagues out and concentrate on building up your knowledge of the players, managers, derbies and grudge matches. Most odds compilers will have several leagues to cover and may not have time to concentrate fully on each one.

Rule 10 - Don't get carried away by short term trends and always be mindful of the bigger picture. This applies both to the leagues you are betting on as well as your own results. For example, if a team has won four games on the bounce then ask yourself "are they winning these games because they are a good team or is it just a lucky run?". If you believe they are a good team then keep backing them but if you think its a lucky run that is likely to end soon, then you may well get the opportunity to back one of their opponents at an inflated price. Man City's excellent run of results at home at the start of the season was a good example. City won their first nine home league games but if you thought this run was going to continue indefinitely then you would have lost your next six bets on them. Another good example is when one of the top teams is having a good run in several different competitions. The media tend to get carried away and soon start suggesting that this club can win all four trophies. Bookmakers latch on to this and ridiculously short prices for a quadruple appear in the Racing post prompting bets from hundreds of mug punters.

You should also be wary of "short termism" when it comes to your own bets. In any given season you will have good spells and bad spells and you should not get carried away with either. Stick to your staking plan and don't start betting bigger and bigger because you are having a good run. Don't go spending all your winnings either, keep a betting fund and only withdraw from it once you have gone over a certain level. You may need it to fall back on during a bad spell. Likewise, don't get too upset by a bad run of results. Analyse your bets to see where you may have gone wrong but don't be panicked into any rash changes. Bad spells can be very disheartening, but if you know your stuff and have made money in the past, then you probably aren't doing too much wrong and the next good spell is just around the corner. The end of the season is the best time to take stock and analyse your performance over the season as a whole.

These rules should help you to tip the odds in your favour. It is possible to make money from betting on football but you will need to invest time and effort. It should be enjoyable too, a moneymaking hobby if you like. If you find the bad spells too upsetting or stressful then maybe it's not for you.


www.punterprofits.com/sports-betting/the_ten_commandments_of_football_betting.php